All real estate decisions must have three
feasibility tests to ensure the positive outcome.
Market analysis is the process of determining
whether the market will support a particular use at a particular site so that is profitable.
1) Market
Feasibility,
Does the forecasted supply and demand relationship
for the property in the selected location indicate success?
2) Location and Site
Feasibility,
Will the location and site support the project
adequately?
3) Financial
Feasibility,
Does the projected financial picture indicate
sufficient profit with the risk?
Market Feasibility is the process
for identifying Demand, Supply and Capital and Political conditions faced by the type of real estate in a
selected region.
In market analysis, a common way to uncover
commercial real estate potential opportunities is to look for gaps. A gap exists when demand exceeds
supply.
When demand equals the supply, the vacancy rate
equals zero. When supply greatly exceeds demand it’s considered over supply.
Most real estate economist use employments as the
primary predictor of real estate demand.
Basic employment includes all the activities that produce more good and services
than can be consumed in local area. Total basic employment is a total of basic employment for all industries.
EBM, Economic base multiplier is the ratio of total employment to basic employment in each industry.
Total future
employment can be obtained through multiplying EBM, economic base multiplier by basic
employment.
The supply of commercial real estate is the total
amount of inventory for property type. Pipeline is new inventory of that is
process of being added to the market.
Forecast total supply inventory in an area is all the existing space that is vacant
, occupied, built, forecasted or demolished for a particular area for specific time period. Vacancy measures the
intraction of supply and demand. Absorption is the amount of inventory that becomes occupied during specific
time period.
Location/ site feasibility can be
categorized to two classifications, site selection and best and highest use. Site selections asks the question,”
what is the best site for the specific use?” and best and highest use asks the question, “what is the best use
for the site?”
A real estate location / site analysis addresses
two essential questions, “is the proposed development possible and is it practical?” In another words, is the intended
use both technically and physically feasible?
Site analysis focuses more on
technical feasibility and identifies if the location/ site is possible. Some technical components are physical
limitation (site size and shape, natural features), regulatory requirements (zoning, future land use) and
environmental concerns (hazards materials, federal laws)
Location analysis focuses more on
functional feasibility and identifies if the location is practical. Some functional characteristics include
demographics (make up of costumer base by age, income), accessibility and linkages (proximity to customer base,
suppliers), traffic generators (other outlets to attraction that will cratepatronage), competition (direct and
indirect)
Financial feasibility is a price
that allows a reasonable profit commensurate with the risk involved. Financial feasibility also means keeping
the occupancy cost at a level commensurate with user’s budget requirements. The proposed new location can be
financially feasible if, the occupancy cost does not exceed the maximum acceptable percentage of expected sales
estimate by the retailer.
An investor seeking to purchase income producing
real estate is faced with establishing several budgets, each of which must track the potential impact of future
market conditions. One, purchase budget includes considerations of purchase price, loans, points,
closing, recordation’s fees, legal costs, appraisals, surveys, environmental and property inspections.
Two, holding period, the operating money budget includes analysis and future estimate of the items outlined on
annual property operating data. APOD. Third,
disposition, the sales proceeds budget estimates items such
as the
possible future sales price, commissions to be paid, loan payoffs requirements and penalties, closing costs
to be paid by seller and legal costs.
One way to accomplish the financial analysis is to
calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) of expected cash flows and sales proceeds after tax over the
investments projected holding period and compare it with investor’s desired yield. Alternatively, the investor can
use net present value analysis to discount future cash flows at the desired rate to present value that can be
compared purchase costs involved.
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